Anytime Goalscorer Betting Tips In Football
First or anytime goalscorer betting markets are there to be exploited but only if you know what you're doing..... Bryan N breaks it down
The first thing to realise is that the anytime goalscorer odds you see in the sportsbooks or on comparison sites etc. are more often than not compiled by a 3rd party provider rather than the traders at the individual firms. It's not always the case, but many of the big name brands are supplied by B2B odds companies.
The sportsbook traders add their margins and adjust to cater for whatever type of clientele they have.
These margins in the goalscorer markets are applied mostly to the players at the top of the market - the big name strikers, and then get gradually thinner as we go down the list. It's usually wise to avoid the biggest names if you are looking to to profit longterm in first or anytime goalscorer football betting. All the value is further down the list and I'll get onto how to exploit this shortly with some tips...
How are Anytime Goalscorer football odds calculated?
First let me take you through where the goalscorer odds stem from. Supremacy, goals per minutes ratio and percentage weight of team goals are some of the main variables incorporated into the models and algorithms churning out goalscorer betting odds. Subjective opinion will also be used to adjust the prices in circumstances such as where significant team news or players changing positions are involved.
"It's an example of using Bayesian Inference to take advantage of the football betting markets"
It's the latter where we can find the real edge. You'll need to be quick to act if some significant team news breaks to nab the best prices on possible replacements as books are quick to react, especially in the bigger leagues. There are plenty of situations though when certain players will be playing different roles which are not really picked up on by the masses. One example of this is Doucoure for Everton under Rafa Benitez in 2021.
In the season previous, Doucoure sat deep in the midfield and didn't see much action in the final third. Under Rafa he operated in a more forward role where he was urged to get into the box, with Allan playing the holding role. This resulted in a number of assists/goals/ shots on target for Doucoure early season, all at value prices way above the true odds. Predicting game patterns or taking notes from watching games can allow you to spot opportunities and angles when no info will be available to compilers or layers. This is easier said than done and requires much experience of watching the football, but it's time worth investing. It's an example of using Bayesian Inference to take advantage of the football betting markets.
Where and when should I bet on the goalscorer markets in football?
In terms of prices I suggest not betting until late. We tend to see the lesser names drift or at least stay the same closer to the kickoff. On the exchanges after the team news is released, we can see big drifts on players. Around 25 to 10 minutes before the game starts we are likely to see the best prices on the exchange. If you're betting sportsbooks make sure to shop around for the best anytime goalscorer prices.
Tips for betting anytime goalscorer:
- Shop around for best anytime or first goalscorer odds.
- Use the exchange to see if there's extra value
- Wait until closer kick off for goalscorer bets
- Try to target players who might be playing in an unexpected more forward role
- Remember that the bookmaker incorporates a decent margin on the best strikers so use oddschecker to locate the best goalscorer prices
