Tips on how to bet on the Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits in 2021

The Ryder Cup 2021 at Whistling Straits is upon us. A year late maybe but it's a wait worth having as Steve Stricker and Padraig Harrington's men square off.

tips for betting on the ryder cup 2021

The big news for the US Ryder Cup side is probably the omission of Captain America Patrick Reed who may not have been deemed fit enough following a recent battle with illness.

For the European Ryder Cup side captain Padraig Harrington will be a little worried about the overall current form of his players and the betting reflects this with the US currently 1.6 favourites to win back Samuel Ryder's trophy. Stricks has been mentioning the all important course fit angle in the lead up to the 2021 Ryder Cup.

He has a bunch of similar enough players and has been refining the Whistling Straits track to suit. We saw the benefit of this in France the last time out when team Europe essentially reversed the Ryder Cup betting odds and showed they should have been significant favourites. This was mainly down to course set up, and the US Ryder Cup side was the team a little out of form back in 2018.

Current Ryder Cup Betting Odds

USA: 4/7

Europe: 9/4

Draw: 12/1

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Tips for how to bet on the Ryder Cup 2021

What sort of betting angles can we find?

Well first thing's first and the outright odds this time are right. I wouldn't be a short price backer but if I was I'd definitely have the US Ryder cup team onside in the outright winner market. Even at ~1.60 I think that price is a little bit of value. 

Course set up, course fit, current form and the lack of European crowds will, in  my opinion, be too much for the Europeans to overcome. Indeed I said much the same at Medinah and you can never rule anything out but the home side in the Ryder Cup handicap betting for me is the angle...

Ryder Cup Course profile and features - Whistling Straits

The Straits course at Whistling Straits is a lengthy, exposed links style track set in the backdrop of Lake Michigan. A number of par 4s will play around the 500 yard mark and they’ll be extremely tough to navigate in the wind. The land is lined by grassy dunes and sandy waste areas but room is available from the tees. The Straits course, designed by Pete Dye, can now stretch almost 7,800 yards to the tips, playing to a par 72. Deep pot bunkers feature throughout the windswept terrain. Unlike traditional links courses, subsoil is not 100% sand based while bentgrass and other strains are predominant over Fescue. Balls can be played more through the air in softer conditions and pins can be attacked. It will play a little similar to Royal ST. Georges in the Open Championship, esp if wind stays down.

Key stats and trends for the Ryder Cup betting

Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson were ranked 2nd and 3rd in Driving Distance respectively in 2010 and at Whistling Straits were fighting it out at the top of the PGA Championship leaderboard. Bubba was propelling drives up around the 350 yard mark on the Sunday on the Straits Course. Rory McIlroy ranked 12th in Driving Distance on the PGA Tour in 2010 and missed a birdie putt on the 72nd that would have forced him into the playoff. The powerful Nick Watney - 20th in Driving Distance that year - held a 3 stroke lead (-13) after 54 holes only to blow up with a final round of 81. Winner Martin Kaymer ranked 29th in driving distance on the European Tour in 2010. 

Jason Day was a feature with a top 10, and the Aussie returned in 2015 leading the driving distance stat and ranking 2nd in the birdies or better metric. I remember he actually used a solid 3 wood off the tee strategy en route to victory. Big Tony Finau should be well suited to the Ryder Cup test in hand and he debuted at Whistling Straits in 2015 with a top 10. A certain Jordan Spieth was runner up to Jason Day while Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson also made the top 7. The story is clear...

Birdies are the Ryder Cup brief...

69 birdies and 3 eagles were recorded at the 2010 PGA Championship between the aforementioned Kaymer, Bubba, Johnson and McIlroy alone. Throw 36 hole leader Matt Kuchar and 54 hole leader Nick Watney into the mix and the tally rises to 100 birdies and 5 eagles between the 6 players - an average of 17.5 par breakers. Nick Watney started his third round with a string of 5 birdies in his first 7 holes. Wen Liang-Chong hit the course record 64 in round 3 with eight birdies and no drop
shots. In all, Liang circled 19 birdies in 72 holes. 

DJ, Bubba and Watney occupied three of the top 5 spaces in the birdie or better % stat on the PGA Tour in 2010. Matt Kuchar finished the season 8th in that stat.

2004 PGA champs renewal at Whistling Straits… 

In 2004 a three way playoff was contested for the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits in what was a windier edition. Vijay Singh, Chris Di Marco and Justin Leonard all finished on a total of -8. It was a tough final day with seven players actually lying on the eventual winning total of -8 or better after just 54 holes. Singh and Leonard began round 4 sitting on scores of -12 and -11 respectively. It was Vijay who emerged victorious. Vijay Singh topped the birdie or better percentage rankings for the calendar year 2004 with a clip of 25.30%, edging out Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.

Coincidence? Vijay sat 13th in driving distance on the PGA Tour that year en route to setting the single season earnings record at $10,905,166.

Ryder Cup Betting target player profile

Premium on: From the stats above we can see the PGA Championship leaderboards from Whistling Straits, especially in 2010, show an extremely strong bias towards big hitting birdie makers. The aggression factor is high and the US Ryder Cup side is ripe with this player profile.

Dutching the Ryder Cup correct score and top points scorers

There's a chapter on the dutching strategy in my book: Angles & Edges and this looks a decent ploy at the Ryder Cup.

Targeting and dutching a selection of aggressive, big hitting birdie makers in the top points scorer market should be given due consideration and may prove fruitful. We can see in the image above Bryson deChambeau has a course fit rating of 9.2 for Whistling Straits and we just saw what he can do to a lengthy low score yielding track with generous landing areas at Caves Valley. Stricks may well opt to utilise his weaponry in all 5 matches.

It might also pay to oppose the shorter hitters in the match betting markets in this year’s Ryder Cup, taking into account the course fit angle. We often see value siding with the perceived outsiders in match betting events. In the fourballs, teams with 2 power hitters will be tough to beat especially ones with Bryson in them. Foursomes as always we need to tread a bit more carefully.

I think the US will win the Ryder Cup by a few points and we can dutch the winning scorelines of 15:13, 15.5: 12.5 and 16:12 at a fair value price

If you enjoyed this content, there's plenty more where that came from in my book ANGLES & EDGES....

how to bet on the ryder cup 2021

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